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Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026. Sell or Buy?
Updated: January 17, 2025 (13:45)
Sector: Basic materialsThe share price of Vale S.A. (VALE) now
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Analyzing the Most Important VALE news
Iron Ore and Gold Shine Amid Tariff Turbulence
Iron Ore Suffers Historic Slump amid China's Weak Demand
Vale Strikes $1.8B Railway Deal with Brazil Government
Historical and forecast chart of Vale S.A. stock
The chart below shows the historical price of Vale S.A. stock and a prediction chart for the next month.
For convenience, prices are divided by color. Forecast prices include: Optimistic Forecast, Pessimistic Forecast,
and Weighted Average Best Forecast. Detailed values for the Vale S.A. stock price can be found in the table below.
Long-term forecasts by years.
Vale S.A. Analysts predictions review
As of now, Panda has combed through 0 analytical articles which are directly related to VALE from the last 30 days. Out of these, 0 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 0 see a bearish trend as the more likely scenario, and 0 stay neutral.
To identify the dominant trend, we took into account analytical articles from the past 30 days, spanning from Jan 01, 1970 to Jan 01, 1970.
Micron and Nike in Spotlight: Earnings Amid Market Uncertainty
In the latest analytical review by Wall Street Week Ahead, the author takes a firm stance of "No" on investing in VALE stock. With a decade of experience and an impressive 391 publications, the author boasts a significant presence in financial journalism. Garnering over 86,285 subscribers underscores their popularity and influence in the financial community. The author's well-regarded credibility, highlighted by a "good" rating, reinforces the value of their insights and recommendations. Averaging nearly 40 publications annually, their prolific output reflects a deep commitment to sharing informed perspectives. As you explore this analytical piece, you are encouraged to consider the author's well-earned reputation for delivering reliable and substantiated viewpoints in the complex world of stock markets.
Key Theses of the Review
- Micron Technology, Nike, and other major companies are scheduled to release their earnings as the earnings season winds down.
- Investors are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut and release of the Summary of Economic Projects for 2024.
- The European Union's core consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to show a year-over-year gain.
- Micron Technology's earnings and its market share in HBM are a focus for analysts.
- Investors are keen on Nike's management changes and potential business turnaround.
Factors Influencing VALE's Stock Price
High Implied Volatility
The article notes that Vale has high implied volatility based on options trading, which indicates uncertainty about future stock movements. This could result in significant price fluctuations, impacting the stock price considerably in the near term.
Review the original AnalysisVale's Resilience Amid Short-Term Turmoil: Navigating Interest Rates, Currency Swings, and Iron Ore Predicaments
In his latest analytical piece on VALE stock, Bernard Zambonin maintains a cautious stance, advising against investment. Despite being a relatively new contributor since 2023, Zambonin has rapidly gained a following, boasting 773 subscribers and producing an impressive 167 publications. This demonstrates a prolific output rate, underscoring his dedication to financial analysis. His authority in the field, while currently rated as low within the standard credibility scale, is steadily growing as evidenced by his significant engagement and publication frequency. This combination of factors suggests that while Zambonin's perspectives are gaining traction, there remains room for his influence to expand further. Readers should consider his rationale carefully while being aware of his emerging, yet promising, authority in the financial analysis domain.
Key Theses of the Article
- Vale is impacted by both internal and external market conditions, including interest rates, currency devaluation, and future iron ore outlook.
- Despite short-term challenges, Vale is a solid long-term opportunity due to its discounted valuation, strong dividend yield, and strategic stock buybacks.
- Vale's low production costs and robust operational structure ensure competitiveness even in adverse iron ore price conditions.
- Vale appears undervalued compared to its peers, with an anticipated free cash flow yield exceeding 14% in 2025, contributing to a significant dividend yield above 10%.
Factors Influencing Vale's Stock Price
Interest Rates
Interest rates can influence Vale's cost of capital and investor demand for stocks like Vale. Higher interest rates generally elevate borrowing costs and might redirect investment towards fixed-income securities.
Currency Devaluation
Currency devaluation affects the cost competitiveness of Vale's exports and can impact profitability in domestic currency terms. Significant shifts can lead to changes in export volume and earnings.
Future Iron Ore Outlook
Future iron ore prices are critical for Vale, given its reliance on iron ore production; fluctuations can directly affect revenue and profitability. Expectations and market dynamics play a significant role in investor sentiment.
Discounted Valuation and Dividend Yield
A discounted valuation coupled with a strong dividend yield can make Vale appealing to value and income-focused investors. This could provide downside protection and a potential return on investment even when markets are volatile.
Review the original AnalysisCommentary
In the realm of commodities, Vale stands out as both a stalwart and an opportunist, flexibly navigating the clouds over the global economy. When considering the factors influencing Vale's stock, a blend of interest rates, currency devaluation, and iron ore outlook collectively cast a significant shadow, each factor averaging a substantial influence. These factors suggest choppiness in the stock's path over the next couple of weeks, driven by macroeconomic shifts and market sentiments.
However, for the months ahead, the horizon looks steadier. Vale's intrinsic strength in a discounted market valuation, infused with a rigorous approach to dividends and stock buybacks, provides a strong defensive posture against uncertainty. With an anticipated free cash flow yield lifting investor spirits, the pull of its dividend yield acts like a beacon for both the veteran and value-seeking investor. Thus, while the near-term outlook might sway due to macro factors, Vale's robust foundations and strategic financial maneuvers suggest stability and promise for an upward shift long-term.
Comprehensive Analysis of Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Market Performance
Our multifaceted analysis of Vale S.A.'s stock market is grounded in the company's key news stories, insights from reputable analysts, as well as mathematical and technical evaluations. Taking into account assessments from each of these aspects in real-time helps us address the most crucial questions for investors in the most objective way possible:
- When should I take profit in Vale S.A. stock?
- When should I record a loss on Vale S.A. stock?
- What are analysts' forecasts for Vale S.A. stock?
- What is the future of Vale S.A. stock?
We forecast Vale S.A. stock performance using neural networks based on historical data on Vale S.A. stocks.
VALE S.A. Stock Forecast: Navigating through Iron Uncertainty
As investors seek potential opportunities and risks within the commodities market, the focus turns towards VALE S.A. (NYSE:VALE), a giant in the iron ore industry. With its upcoming earnings report on 2/22/2024, expectations are pinned at $0.92 in normalized EPS and $0.98 in GAAP EPS, with projected revenues hitting $13.07 billion. These figures highlight a significant surge in Vale’s Q4 iron ore production, which notably exceeded initial estimates. This development suggests a nuanced landscape for forecasting VALE stocks, particularly given the unpredictable nature of the commodities market.
Factors Influencing VALE Stock Predictability
Several pivotal elements stand out in evaluating the potential trajectory of VALE stocks. Firstly, China’s construction sector, a primary consumer of steel, exhibits declining growth. With new home sales and housing starts significantly reduced, a substantial risk looms over the demand for steel and, consequently, iron ore. This downturn is likely to assert downward pressure on iron ore prices, thereby impacting VALE’s profitability and stock performance.
Notably, the anticipated iron ore prices by the Australian government, estimated at $63/ton by 2028, further complicate the VALE stock forecast. VALE’s production costs are relatively competitive; however, the narrowing margin between production costs and market price raises concerns about future profitability.
Given these factors, the predictability of VALE stocks faces considerable challenges. Market dynamics, heavily influenced by China’s property market and global iron ore demand, will play a critical role in shaping VALE’s stock trajectory. The potential for a significant decline in China’s real estate market, which could have an impact on steel demand and, consequently, iron ore prices, is clouding investor sentiment toward VALE.
In conclusion, while VALE stocks offer an opportunity for those who are aware of trends in the commodities market, it is impossible to ignore the inherent risks highlighted by geopolitical and economic factors. As we anticipate VALE’s earning report, the question remains: Is VALE a good stock to buy? Investors must weigh the high stakes of fluctuating iron ore prices and the Chinese real estate market downturn against the company’s competitive production costs and dividend appeal. The future of VALE stocks is not carved in stone, but rather subject to the turbulent waves of global market forces.
Vale S.A. News influencing stock rates
As of now, Panda has combed through 4 news items directly related to VALE from the last 30 days. Out of these, 1 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 2 display bearish tendencies, and 1 events are neutral.
The strength of the bearish trend is dominating bullish sentiments by 2 times, indicating that the current news landscape is negatively impacting the company's stock prices in the foreseeable future.
The news analyzed fell within the period from Dec 27, 2024, to Jan 03, 2025.
Iron Ore Dips to Five-Week Low Amid China's Steel Slowdown
Vale's Dividend Alert: Ex-Dividend Date Approaches
Copper Surge: China's Stimulus Sparks Mining Stocks Rally
Vale Projects Steady Iron Ore Output Amid Copper Output Surge
VALE's Elevated Options Activity: A Market Indicator?
Vale's Stock Rebounds After Six-Day Slump
Vale and BHP Cleared in $31.7B Dam Disaster Court Case
Hurricanes Wreak Havoc on Mosaic's Florida Operations, Impacting Q3 Financials
UBS Downgrades Vale Amid Iron Ore Concerns
Vale Joins Forces with China for $1.4B Nickel Venture in Indonesia
Vale S.A. daily forecast for a month
Date | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 19 | 8.72 | 8.59 | 8.85 | 2.98 |
Jan 20 | 8.82 | 8.73 | 8.88 | 1.79 |
Jan 21 | 8.80 | 8.62 | 8.88 | 3.03 |
Jan 22 | 8.93 | 8.81 | 9.13 | 3.68 |
Jan 23 | 9.10 | 8.92 | 9.16 | 2.66 |
Jan 24 | 8.98 | 8.79 | 9.11 | 3.65 |
Jan 25 | 9.04 | 8.85 | 9.14 | 3.28 |
Jan 26 | 9.15 | 8.93 | 9.27 | 3.72 |
Jan 27 | 9.42 | 9.23 | 9.64 | 4.50 |
Jan 28 | 9.34 | 9.16 | 9.48 | 3.52 |
Jan 29 | 9.13 | 8.98 | 9.28 | 3.36 |
Jan 30 | 9.12 | 9.05 | 9.30 | 2.78 |
Jan 31 | 9.13 | 9.07 | 9.18 | 1.30 |
Feb 01 | 9.01 | 8.82 | 9.21 | 4.35 |
Feb 02 | 9.14 | 8.95 | 9.34 | 4.35 |
Feb 03 | 9.30 | 9.22 | 9.37 | 1.66 |
Feb 04 | 9.54 | 9.48 | 9.72 | 2.54 |
Feb 05 | 9.40 | 9.19 | 9.62 | 4.67 |
Feb 06 | 9.48 | 9.38 | 9.60 | 2.27 |
Feb 07 | 9.34 | 9.16 | 9.47 | 3.40 |
Feb 08 | 9.28 | 9.09 | 9.36 | 2.97 |
Feb 09 | 9.33 | 9.13 | 9.49 | 3.96 |
Feb 10 | 9.57 | 9.38 | 9.75 | 3.88 |
Feb 11 | 9.48 | 9.28 | 9.67 | 4.23 |
Feb 12 | 9.40 | 9.28 | 9.54 | 2.86 |
Feb 13 | 9.49 | 9.38 | 9.59 | 2.31 |
Feb 14 | 9.28 | 9.20 | 9.40 | 2.15 |
Feb 15 | 9.30 | 9.14 | 9.46 | 3.51 |
Feb 16 | 9.04 | 8.85 | 9.23 | 4.35 |
Feb 17 | 9.01 | 8.86 | 9.19 | 3.75 |
Vale S.A. Daily Price Targets
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-19-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-19-2025: $8.72.
Negative dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 2.898%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.59
Optimistic target level: 8.85
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-20-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-20-2025: $8.82.
Positive dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 1.758%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.73
Optimistic target level: 8.88
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-21-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-21-2025: $8.80.
Negative dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 2.944%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.62
Optimistic target level: 8.88
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-22-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-22-2025: $8.93.
Positive dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.549%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.81
Optimistic target level: 9.13
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-23-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-23-2025: $9.10.
Positive dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 2.594%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.92
Optimistic target level: 9.16
Vale S.A. Stock Forecast 01-24-2025.
Forecast target price for 01-24-2025: $8.98.
Negative dynamics for Vale S.A. shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.519%.
Pessimistic target level: 8.79
Optimistic target level: 9.11
VALE (VALE) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2025
Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
---|---|---|---|---|
Feb. | 8.37 | 7.80 | 9.02 | 13.58 |
Mar. | 8.15 | 7.63 | 8.67 | 11.96 |
Apr. | 8.56 | 7.75 | 9.26 | 16.31 |
May. | 8.57 | 8.27 | 8.95 | 7.58 |
Jun. | 8.27 | 8.06 | 8.82 | 8.67 |
Jul. | 7.99 | 7.30 | 8.67 | 15.81 |
Aug. | 8.62 | 8.25 | 9.27 | 11.05 |
Sep. | 8.97 | 8.30 | 9.83 | 15.55 |
Oct. | 8.45 | 7.95 | 9.15 | 13.19 |
Nov. | 7.97 | 7.58 | 8.26 | 8.21 |
Dec. | 7.81 | 7.21 | 8.56 | 15.77 |
Vale S.A. forecast for this year
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Feb 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.37174. Pessimistic: $7.80. Optimistic: $9.02
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Mar 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.15073. Pessimistic: $7.63. Optimistic: $8.67
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Apr 2025
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.56153. Pessimistic: $7.75. Optimistic: $9.26
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for May 2025
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.5718. Pessimistic: $8.27. Optimistic: $8.95
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Jun 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.2735. Pessimistic: $8.06. Optimistic: $8.82
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Jul 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $7.98558. Pessimistic: $7.30. Optimistic: $8.67
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Aug 2025
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.61804. Pessimistic: $8.25. Optimistic: $9.27
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Sep 2025
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.96966. Pessimistic: $8.30. Optimistic: $9.83
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Oct 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $8.45301. Pessimistic: $7.95. Optimistic: $9.15
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Nov 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $7.96611. Pessimistic: $7.58. Optimistic: $8.26
Vale S.A. Stock Prediction for Dec 2025
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $7.81316. Pessimistic: $7.21. Optimistic: $8.56
Vale S.A. (VALE) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2026
Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 7.27 | 6.89 | 7.60 | 9.30 |
Feb | 7.85 | 7.49 | 8.60 | 12.93 |
Mar | 8.65 | 8.04 | 9.27 | 13.22 |
Apr | 8.61 | 8.18 | 9.17 | 10.82 |
May | 9.18 | 8.80 | 9.52 | 7.64 |
Jun | 8.87 | 8.63 | 9.63 | 10.39 |
Jul | 9.65 | 9.41 | 9.94 | 5.36 |
Aug | 9.36 | 8.87 | 9.62 | 7.82 |
Sep | 9.09 | 8.79 | 9.79 | 10.25 |
Oct | 8.80 | 8.31 | 9.26 | 10.26 |
Nov | 9.09 | 8.38 | 9.61 | 12.72 |
Dec | 8.48 | 8.15 | 9.09 | 10.41 |
Vale S.A. (VALE) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2027
Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 8.73 | 7.92 | 9.30 | 14.86 |
Feb | 8.83 | 8.41 | 9.66 | 12.95 |
Mar | 9.73 | 9.00 | 10.48 | 14.15 |
Apr | 10.03 | 9.28 | 10.55 | 12.10 |
May | 10.34 | 9.39 | 11.20 | 16.16 |
Jun | 10.73 | 10.22 | 11.72 | 12.85 |
Jul | 10.84 | 10.35 | 11.29 | 8.29 |
Aug | 10.94 | 10.44 | 11.32 | 7.77 |
Sep | 11.16 | 10.51 | 12.14 | 13.46 |
Oct | 10.69 | 10.23 | 10.96 | 6.67 |
Nov | 11.10 | 10.04 | 11.86 | 15.39 |
Dec | 10.44 | 9.59 | 10.80 | 11.25 |
Vale S.A. information and performance
AVENIDA GRACA ARANHA #26, RIO DE JANEIRO, BR
Market capitalization of the Vale S.A. is the total market value of all issued shares of a company. It is calculated by the formula multiplying the number of VALE shares in the company outstanding by the market price of one share.
EBITDA of Vale S.A. is earnings before interest, income tax and depreciation of assets.
P/E ratio (price to earnings) - shows the ratio between the price of a share and the company's profit
Price/earnings to growth
Dividend Per Share is a financial indicator equal to the ratio of the company's net profit available for distribution to the annual average of ordinary shares.
Dividend yield is a ratio that shows how much a company pays in dividends each year at the stock price.
EPS shows how much of the net profit is accounted for by the common share.
Trailing P/E depends on what has already been done. It uses the current share price and divides it by the total earnings per share for the last 12 months.
Forward P/E uses projections of future earnings instead of final numbers.
Enterprise Value (EV) /Revenue
The EV / EBITDA ratio shows the ratio of the cost (EV) to its profit before tax, interest and amortization (EBITDA).
Number of issued ordinary shares
Number of freely tradable shares
Shares Short Prior Month - the number of shares in short positions in the last month.
Vale S.A. (VALE) stock dividend
Vale S.A. last paid dividends on 12/12/2024. The next scheduled payment will be on 09/11/2024. The amount of dividends is $1.48 per share. If the date of the next dividend payment has not been updated, it means that the issuer has not yet announced the exact payment. As soon as information becomes available, we will immediately update the data. Bookmark our portal to stay updated.
Last Split Date: 01/01/1970
Splitting of shares is an increase in the number of securities of the issuing company circulating on the market due to a decrease in their value at constant capitalization.
For example, a 5: 1 ratio means that the value of one share will decrease 5 times, the total amount will increase 5 times. It is important to understand that this procedure does not change the capitalization of the company, as well as the total value of assets held in private hands.
Related stocks from Basic materials sector
All forecast data on the site are provided for informational purposes of using neural forecasting tools in the financial market and are not a call to action and, moreover, are not trading signals. When using the forecast data, the investor assumes all financial risks. The pandaforecast.com portal is not responsible for the loss of your money in the stock market as a result of using the information contained on the site.
Commentary
This week's investor focus shifts to the much-anticipated earnings reports from industry giants like Micron Technology and Nike, as the earnings season approaches a lull. Adding fuel to their interest, expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the economic outlook for 2024 are casting shadows over the market, creating a backdrop of uncertainty. Not to be overlooked, the European Union's CPI data could further tilt market sentiment. With shifting tides, the spotlight on Micron Technology revolves around its earnings performance and its strategies to recapture market share in HBM. Simultaneously, Nike's leadership shuffle and potential for a business renaissance keep investors on their toes, eager for hints of change that could swing market confidence.
Interestingly, in contrast to these analyses, the article hints at Vale's elevated volatility, drawing attention from options traders, potentially signaling a bumpy road ahead. This uncertain climate may cause fluctuations in Vale's stock price, reflecting the market's bid to digest a cacophony of economic signals. On average, these factors suggest a complex and potentially volatile journey over the next 15 days and likely continuing into the month, warranting cautious speculation on stock trends as investors readjust to unfolding economic narratives.