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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026. Sell or Buy?
Updated: September 13, 2024 (16:20)
Sector: TechnologyThe share price of Microsoft Inc. (MSFT) now
News Impact Analyzer
Full report|
This Week
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Bullish | Impact: 5 | News: 8 (6/2/0) |
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Previous Week
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Bullish | Impact: 5 | News: 6 (3/3/0) |
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Two Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Impact: 5 | News: 11 (7/4/0) |
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Three Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Impact: 3.08 | News: 10 (5/3/2) |
Analysts predictions
Full report|
This Week
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Bullish | Opinions: 3 (2/0/1) |
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Previous Week
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Bullish | Opinions: 5 (3/2/0) |
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Two Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Opinions: 1 (1/0/0) |
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Three Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Opinions: 2 (2/0/0) |
Analyzing the Most Important MSFT news
OpenAI's New AI Models to Enhance Problem-Solving Capabilities
Microsoft Elevates Operations with GE's Finance Head Happe
Microsoft's 365 Services Disruption Under Investigation
Historical and forecast chart of Microsoft stock
The chart below shows the historical price of Microsoft stock and a prediction chart for the next month. For convenience, prices are divided by color. Forecast prices include: Optimistic Forecast, Pessimistic Forecast, and Weighted Average Best Forecast. Detailed values for the Microsoft stock price can be found in the table below.
Long-term forecasts by years.
Microsoft Inc. Analysts predictions review
As of now, Panda has combed through 12 analytical articles which are directly related to MSFT from the last 30 days. Out of these, 9 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 1 see a bearish trend as the more likely scenario, and 2 stay neutral.
To identify the dominant trend, we took into account analytical articles from the past 30 days, spanning from Aug 12, 2024 to Sep 10, 2024.
Microsoft's Azure Surge: $200 Billion Revenue Vision by 2028
In her latest analysis, Beth Kindig presents a bullish stance on Microsoft (MSFT) stock, underscoring her confidence in the company’s future prospects. With over 170 publications since 2018, Kindig showcases a prolific output that resonates with a substantial audience. Garnering 16,365 subscribers, her insights are clearly well-received and widely followed. Her perspectives carry considerable weight, reflecting the strong credibility and authoritative nature of her analysis within the investment community. Kindig's work, backed by years of diligent contributing and an impressive track record, offers readers a thoughtful and persuasive take on Microsoft's growth potential. This review delves into her key points and insights, providing valuable perspectives for those considering MSFT as a component of their investment portfolio.
Key Theses from the Article
- Microsoft Azure is predicted to reach $200 billion in revenue by 2028.
- Azure AI plays a critical role in custom AI solutions for enterprises.
- Satya Nadella's leadership has significantly improved Microsoft's competitiveness and stock performance.
- Azure's AI services showed an 11-point contribution to revenue growth, highlighting its strategic importance.
- Microsoft's capex spending is at the highest among cloud IaaS providers, indicating strong future AI infrastructure developments.
Key Factors Influencing Microsoft's Stock Price
AI Revenue Streams
AI contributions are predicted to provide an additional 10 points to Azure's growth, significantly bolstering Microsoft's revenue. With AI services contributing 11 points to growth last quarter, Microsoft's stock price is likely to track upward as AI remains a high-demand technology.
Leadership and Strategic Decisions
Satya Nadella's leadership has propelled Microsoft to a 1,000% stock increase in 10 years, demonstrating the impact of informed leadership on investor confidence. This turnaround showcases how well-implemented strategies in cloud services can continually drive stock performance.
Capex Spending
With $19 billion spent on AI infrastructure in Q4, investors are expected to seek returns from increased AI capacity. The high capex implies strong confidence in the forecasted demand for Azure services, promising potential uplift in stock as these capabilities are realized.
Enterprise Market Penetration
Given that 85% of Fortune 500 companies use Azure, Microsoft's large enterprise market share supports steady, reliable revenue streams. This stronghold offers a buffer against market volatility and strengthens stock performance through stable customer retention.
Security Segment Growth
Microsoft's security segment is reportedly worth $28 billion, surpassing all best-of-breed cybersecurity firms combined. Its rapid growth rate can positively influence the stock by attracting more enterprise clients seeking comprehensive security solutions.
Review the original Analysis
Microsoft's AI Dominance Wanes as Open-Source Rivals Thrive
Nexus Research has delivered a comprehensive analysis of the financial landscape surrounding Microsoft (MSFT), maintaining a notably Bearish perspective on the stock's potential trajectory. With an impressive catalog of 257 publications since joining the discourse community in 2018, Nexus Research has established itself as a significant voice, drawing in 3,185 dedicated subscribers. This prolific writing pace and widespread following showcase both popularity and the trust that readers place in the author's insights. With credibility deemed high, Nexus Research's perspectives are particularly influential, providing readers with well-founded and authoritative financial viewpoints. As you delve into the review, expect a detailed examination that reflects the author's experienced and trusted analysis on MSFT's bearish market outlook.
Key Theses from the Article
- Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI initially positioned it as a leader in the AI race, but open-source models are emerging as significant competitors.
- The stock does not justify a premium valuation due to declining competitive advantages and rising open-source model popularity.
- Rivals such as Amazon's AWS are leveraging open-source tools to challenge Microsoft's Azure growth.
- Open-source models like Meta's Llama are gaining traction, reducing Azure's potential for market share gains.
- Nvidia's on-premise AI solutions present an alternative to cloud migrations, posing another challenge to Microsoft's growth strategy.
Factors Influencing Microsoft's Stock Price
Emergence of Open-Source Models
The rise in open-source models is challenging Microsoft's hold on the AI cloud market, leading to a decreased competitive edge as companies prefer more cost-effective open-source solutions over Microsoft's exclusive models.
Competition from AWS and Other Cloud Providers
AWS and other providers are providing valuable support tools for open-source models, directly competing with Microsoft's Azure in attracting cloud customers, weakening Azure's growth potential.
Nvidia's On-Premises AI Solutions
With Nvidia offering on-premises AI solutions, there is a reduced need for businesses to migrate to cloud services, potentially impacting Azure's customer base and revenue growth.
Shift in AI Model Preferences
The growing preference for smaller and mid-sized AI models challenges Microsoft's existing model infrastructure, potentially inhibiting future cost efficiencies and profit margins.
Microsoft's Valuation Concerns
With the diminishing edge from AI partnerships and an expensive Forward PEG ratio of 2.29x, the stock appears overvalued relative to its growth prospects, leading to expectations of a stock price correction.
Review the original Analysis
Commentary
Microsoft's once stronghold in the AI domain, fortified by its partnership with OpenAI, is gradually losing its luster as open-source models rise to prominence. The emergence of these cost-effective alternatives is significantly undercutting Microsoft's previously impenetrable competitive edge, with rivals like AWS leveraging these models to entice Azure's potential customer base. Nvidia's on-premises solutions are yet another blow, providing businesses with local AI setups that negate the necessity for a cloud transition.
The collective impact of these challenges is substantial. Evaluating the combined significance, the average influence is an 8, suggesting a robust downward pressure on Microsoft’s stock in the short term. This trend seems poised to continue over the next month, as Microsoft's valuation struggles to justify its premium pricing amidst these mounting competitive threats. Consequently, the ongoing shift towards open-source models and changing AI preferences place Microsoft's stock on a precarious path, demanding careful consideration from investors.
Comprehensive Analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Market Performance
Our multifaceted analysis of Microsoft's stock market is grounded in the company's key news stories, insights from reputable analysts, as well as mathematical and technical evaluations. Taking into account assessments from each of these aspects in real-time helps us address the most crucial questions for investors in the most objective way possible:
- When should I take profit in Microsoft stock?
- When should I record a loss on Microsoft stock?
- What are analysts' forecasts for Microsoft stock?
- What is the future of Microsoft stock?
We forecast Microsoft stock performance using neural networks based on historical data on Microsoft stocks.
Microsoft Inc. News influencing stock rates
As of now, Panda has combed through 35 news items directly related to MSFT from the last 30 days. Out of these, 21 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 2 display bearish tendencies, and 12 events are neutral.
Based on an analysis of the most important news from the last 30 days affecting MSFT shares, it's clear that bullish sentiments are completely overshadowing bearish ones. The impact of positive news is more than five times as dominant as that of negative developments.
The news analyzed fell within the period from Aug 14, 2024, to Sep 12, 2024.
CrowdStrike and Microsoft Collaborate Post-Outage for Enhanced Security Resilience
OpenAI Targets $150B Valuation with Major Funding Round
Microsoft Teases Groundbreaking AI Leap with OpenAI Partnership
OpenAI's Reasoning AI 'Strawberry' Set for Release - A Boost for MSFT?
Microsoft Tweaks Metrics for a Clearer Azure Outlook
OpenAI Reaches 1 Million Business Users for ChatGPT, Fueling Microsoft's AI Ambitions
Ex-OpenAI Chief's New AI Venture Raises $1B, Eyes $5B Valuation
UK Regulator Clears Microsoft-Inflection AI Partnership: No Antitrust Issues
OpenAI's Ambitious US AI Infrastructure Plan: Potential Multibillion-Dollar Boost for Microsoft
Coinbase Executes Inaugural AI-Powered Crypto Transaction
Microsoft Corporation is one of the largest transnational companies producing proprietary software for various kinds of computing equipment – personal computers, game consoles, PDAs, mobile phones and others, the developer of the most widely used software platform in the world at the moment – the Windows operating system family. The divisions of the company also manufacture the family of Xbox game consoles, as well as accessories for personal computers.
In 2013, Microsoft announced the purchase of its mobile phone manufacturing and service division from Nokia, Finland.
Microsoft daily forecast for a month
| Date | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | 416.62 | 412.96 | 422.79 | 2.38 |
| Sep 16 | 414.12 | 403.52 | 424.06 | 5.09 |
| Sep 17 | 417.11 | 406.09 | 430.29 | 5.96 |
| Sep 18 | 407.60 | 400.91 | 419.99 | 4.76 |
| Sep 19 | 411.67 | 398.83 | 424.35 | 6.40 |
| Sep 20 | 417.27 | 406.59 | 426.12 | 4.80 |
| Sep 21 | 415.77 | 403.79 | 427.08 | 5.77 |
| Sep 22 | 414.11 | 410.46 | 423.22 | 3.11 |
| Sep 23 | 401.19 | 390.27 | 412.90 | 5.80 |
| Sep 24 | 397.01 | 387.17 | 401.46 | 3.69 |
| Sep 25 | 395.58 | 388.15 | 403.81 | 4.04 |
| Sep 26 | 392.42 | 380.65 | 396.81 | 4.25 |
| Sep 27 | 404.66 | 400.45 | 416.80 | 4.08 |
| Sep 28 | 413.08 | 407.79 | 426.30 | 4.54 |
| Sep 29 | 422.66 | 411.84 | 431.62 | 4.80 |
| Sep 30 | 429.43 | 417.75 | 437.16 | 4.65 |
| Oct 01 | 439.90 | 430.75 | 448.88 | 4.21 |
| Oct 02 | 433.75 | 428.71 | 438.78 | 2.35 |
| Oct 03 | 425.24 | 421.67 | 430.18 | 2.02 |
| Oct 04 | 415.72 | 402.75 | 427.69 | 6.19 |
| Oct 05 | 411.23 | 401.52 | 416.33 | 3.69 |
| Oct 06 | 394.94 | 387.52 | 402.37 | 3.83 |
| Oct 07 | 387.99 | 378.06 | 393.27 | 4.02 |
| Oct 08 | 393.42 | 383.98 | 405.86 | 5.70 |
| Oct 09 | 389.33 | 386.06 | 393.54 | 1.94 |
| Oct 10 | 388.40 | 382.65 | 396.79 | 3.69 |
| Oct 11 | 389.18 | 376.88 | 397.11 | 5.37 |
| Oct 12 | 395.25 | 389.24 | 405.05 | 4.06 |
| Oct 13 | 394.77 | 389.88 | 403.77 | 3.56 |
| Oct 14 | 383.56 | 376.35 | 390.00 | 3.63 |
Microsoft Daily Price Targets
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-15-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-15-2024: $416.62.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 2.326%.
Pessimistic target level: 412.96
Optimistic target level: 422.79
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-16-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-16-2024: $414.12.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 4.844%.
Pessimistic target level: 403.52
Optimistic target level: 424.06
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-17-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-17-2024: $417.11.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 5.622%.
Pessimistic target level: 406.09
Optimistic target level: 430.29
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-18-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-18-2024: $407.60.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 4.542%.
Pessimistic target level: 400.91
Optimistic target level: 419.99
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-19-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-19-2024: $411.67.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 6.015%.
Pessimistic target level: 398.83
Optimistic target level: 424.35
Microsoft Stock Forecast 09-20-2024.
Forecast target price for 09-20-2024: $417.27.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 4.583%.
Pessimistic target level: 406.59
Optimistic target level: 426.12
MSFT (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2024
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. | 418.81 | 390.33 | 451.06 | 13.46 |
| Nov. | 401.64 | 371.11 | 414.49 | 10.47 |
| Dec. | 389.19 | 379.07 | 397.75 | 4.70 |
Microsoft forecast for this year
Microsoft Stock Prediction for Oct 2024
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $418.81. Pessimistic: $390.33. Optimistic: $451.06
Microsoft Stock Prediction for Nov 2024
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $401.638. Pessimistic: $371.11. Optimistic: $414.49
Microsoft Stock Prediction for Dec 2024
An downtrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $389.188. Pessimistic: $379.07. Optimistic: $397.75
Microsoft (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2025
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 365.06 | 336.22 | 393.53 | 14.56 |
| Feb | 355.93 | 345.25 | 364.83 | 5.37 |
| Mar | 357.00 | 343.08 | 366.28 | 6.34 |
| Apr | 353.07 | 330.83 | 360.49 | 8.23 |
| May | 352.72 | 335.79 | 367.53 | 8.64 |
| Jun | 340.73 | 327.10 | 364.92 | 10.36 |
| Jul | 356.74 | 334.62 | 373.87 | 10.50 |
| Aug | 361.74 | 337.14 | 379.10 | 11.07 |
| Sep | 339.67 | 325.06 | 350.20 | 7.18 |
| Oct | 336.61 | 311.37 | 348.73 | 10.71 |
| Nov | 336.95 | 324.15 | 354.13 | 8.47 |
| Dec | 332.91 | 322.92 | 348.22 | 7.27 |
Microsoft (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2026
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 352.55 | 338.09 | 372.64 | 9.27 |
| Feb | 358.89 | 342.38 | 371.81 | 7.92 |
| Mar | 342.38 | 325.61 | 364.30 | 10.62 |
| Apr | 354.71 | 329.53 | 379.54 | 13.18 |
| May | 350.10 | 333.29 | 358.85 | 7.12 |
| Jun | 352.20 | 334.94 | 376.50 | 11.04 |
| Jul | 358.89 | 343.10 | 371.81 | 7.72 |
| Aug | 375.76 | 355.84 | 396.05 | 10.15 |
| Sep | 377.64 | 351.20 | 391.61 | 10.32 |
| Oct | 374.99 | 359.62 | 383.24 | 6.16 |
| Nov | 372.74 | 344.04 | 398.09 | 13.58 |
| Dec | 373.49 | 365.65 | 391.79 | 6.67 |
Microsoft information and performance
ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND, WA, US
Market capitalization of the Microsoft Inc. is the total market value of all issued shares of a company. It is calculated by the formula multiplying the number of MSFT shares in the company outstanding by the market price of one share.
EBITDA of Microsoft is earnings before interest, income tax and depreciation of assets.
P/E ratio (price to earnings) - shows the ratio between the price of a share and the company's profit
Price/earnings to growth
Dividend Per Share is a financial indicator equal to the ratio of the company's net profit available for distribution to the annual average of ordinary shares.
Dividend yield is a ratio that shows how much a company pays in dividends each year at the stock price.
EPS shows how much of the net profit is accounted for by the common share.
Trailing P/E depends on what has already been done. It uses the current share price and divides it by the total earnings per share for the last 12 months.
Forward P/E uses projections of future earnings instead of final numbers.
Enterprise Value (EV) /Revenue
The EV / EBITDA ratio shows the ratio of the cost (EV) to its profit before tax, interest and amortization (EBITDA).
Number of issued ordinary shares
Number of freely tradable shares
Shares Short Prior Month - the number of shares in short positions in the last month.
Microsoft (MSFT) stock dividend
Microsoft last paid dividends on 08/15/2024. The next scheduled payment will be on 09/12/2024. The amount of dividends is $3 per share. If the date of the next dividend payment has not been updated, it means that the issuer has not yet announced the exact payment. As soon as information becomes available, we will immediately update the data. Bookmark our portal to stay updated.
Last Split Date: 01/01/1970
Splitting of shares is an increase in the number of securities of the issuing company circulating on the market due to a decrease in their value at constant capitalization.
For example, a 5: 1 ratio means that the value of one share will decrease 5 times, the total amount will increase 5 times. It is important to understand that this procedure does not change the capitalization of the company, as well as the total value of assets held in private hands.
Commentary
The analysis suggests a promising trajectory for Microsoft's stock, fueled by robust AI-driven growth. With AI revenue streams and strategic investments under Satya Nadella's expert leadership, Microsoft's stock has a high average influence strength, likely generating upward momentum in the next 15 days and beyond. Microsoft's substantial capex spending underscores confidence in AI infrastructure, which is predicted to bolster Azure's service capabilities further and drive stock appreciation.
Looking towards the coming month, the synergy between AI innovation, security segment growth, and substantial enterprise market penetration formulates a strong foundation for a bullish stock outlook. The enterprise adoption, coupled with a thriving security sector, ensures a stable revenue stream, enabling Microsoft to buffer against market fluctuations. The strategic foresight of Microsoft's leadership, along with its innovative edge, paints a comprehensive picture of continued success in the expansive tech landscape.