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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026. Sell or Buy?
Updated: October 18, 2024 (01:20)
Sector: TechnologyThe share price of Microsoft Inc. (MSFT) now
News Impact Analyzer
Full report|
This Week
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Bullish | Impact: 4.83 | News: 9 (4/4/1) |
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Previous Week
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Bullish | Impact: 2.68 | News: 15 (7/5/3) |
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Two Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Impact: 5 | News: 14 (8/6/0) |
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Three Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Impact: 4.14 | News: 20 (8/10/2) |
Analysts predictions
Full report|
This Week
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Bullish | Opinions: 3 (2/1/0) |
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Previous Week
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Bullish | Opinions: 4 (3/0/1) |
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Two Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Opinions: 2 (2/0/0) |
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Three Weeks Ago
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Bullish | Opinions: 2 (2/0/0) |
Analyzing the Most Important MSFT news
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Historical and forecast chart of Microsoft stock
The chart below shows the historical price of Microsoft stock and a prediction chart for the next month. For convenience, prices are divided by color. Forecast prices include: Optimistic Forecast, Pessimistic Forecast, and Weighted Average Best Forecast. Detailed values for the Microsoft stock price can be found in the table below.
Long-term forecasts by years.
Microsoft Inc. Analysts predictions review
As of now, Panda has combed through 11 analytical articles which are directly related to MSFT from the last 30 days. Out of these, 9 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 1 see a bearish trend as the more likely scenario, and 1 stay neutral.
To identify the dominant trend, we took into account analytical articles from the past 30 days, spanning from Sep 18, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024.
Microsoft: Is Azure's Performance Cast A Cloud Over Future Prospects?
In this review, we explore the insights shared by Income Generator, a seasoned contributor since 2013 with a substantial body of work consisting of 490 publications. Known for their neutral stance on MSFT stock, Income Generator provides a balanced and meticulously analyzed perspective. As a popular and credible voice in the field, they have amassed 9,646 subscribers, an impressive testament to their widespread influence. Given their high volume of contributions over a decade, with a remarkable authority level signifying excellent credibility, readers can trust the reliability of their analyses. This credibility, stemming from both their longevity and authority, ensures that their thoughts on financial topics are not only highly authoritative but also trusted and valued within the financial community.
Key Theses of the Article
- Microsoft's stock is downgraded to 'hold' due to weak post-earnings performances.
- Azure's performance concerns investors as it is pivotal for stock valuation.
- Forward valuation metrics position Microsoft less attractively compared to peers.
- A potential head and shoulders pattern suggests possible future stock declines.
Key Factors Influencing Microsoft's Stock Price
Post-Earnings Performance
Despite beating earnings estimates, weak earnings reactions erode investor confidence, affecting stock momentum negatively. This signifies a strong market reaction towards earnings performance, impacting stock price significantly in the near term.
Azure's Growth Performance
Azure's performance is crucial as it represents a large segment of Microsoft's growth potential. Concerns over Azure's growth are highly impactful, given it can sway investor sentiment and subsequently affect stock performance.
Comparative Forward Valuation Metrics
Microsoft's current valuation suggests there are more attractive investment alternatives among the MAG-7 cohort. Such comparatively high valuation metrics can deter investors, influencing downward pressure on stock price.
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern
The formation of a head and shoulders pattern could indicate bearish sentiment, leading to potential stock declines. This technical factor holds moderate significance as it may impact investor trading strategies.
Review the original Analysis
Microsoft's AI-Powered Clouds Promise Bullish Surprises Ahead
In a recent analytical article on MSFT stock, Danil Sereda presents a bullish perspective. As a notable contributor in the financial domain, Sereda's insights carry significant weight, reflected in his impressive 558 publications since 2020. This demonstrates a prolific output, averaging a substantial number of articles per year. With over 10,697 subscribers, his opinions resonate broadly within the financial community. Importantly, his viewpoints are regarded with excellent credibility, denoting them as highly authoritative. Such a credential underscores the reliability of his analysis, making his bullish outlook on MSFT particularly compelling. For investors seeking informed viewpoints, Sereda's work is a trusted resource, framed by both popularity and substantial expertise.
Key Theses from the Article
- The article upgrades Microsoft to 'Buy' due to favorable valuation and strategic AI and cloud focus.
- Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud revenue rose by 19% in Q4, driven by AI integration.
- Investment in AI and cloud services positions Microsoft for future growth and potential earnings beats.
- Despite increased capital spending, Microsoft's balance sheet supports sustainable investments and potential buybacks.
- Risks include fluctuating PC demand, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory scrutiny.
Key Factors Influencing MSFT Stock Price
AI and Cloud Services Expansion
Microsoft's focus on AI-powered cloud services boosted revenues by 21% to $36.8 billion, and this business segment appears to be the most promising for future growth. AI integration has contributed significantly to Azure's 29% YoY growth, making it a pivotal factor for future increases in stock price.
Financial Health and Cash Flow
The robust balance sheet, with about $75.5 billion in cash, supports Microsoft's ambitious capital spending plans, ensuring potential for sustained investment and shareholder returns. This financial stability, alongside an operating cash flow increase of 29% YoY to $37.2 billion, provides a strong foundation for stock performance.
PC Demand and Macroeconomic Conditions
Fluctuating demand for PCs could impact the Windows segment, with additional pressure from macroeconomic conditions potentially curtailing corporate tech investments. These factors can affect Microsoft's revenue streams, particularly those that are advertising-sensitive.
Regulatory Challenges
Microsoft faces regulatory scrutiny over its cloud offerings and AI partnerships, which could lead to interventions impacting its operational capabilities. The ongoing legal and regulatory examinations introduce uncertainty and potential constraints on expansion, affecting investor sentiment.
Review the original Analysis Commentary
Microsoft is setting the stage for a promising future by expanding its AI and cloud services, a key focus that’s now enhancing their core business streams. Their increased revenues, particularly from Azure's 29% YoY growth, are likely to drive positive momentum for MSFT stock in the short term. The company’s solid financial health, with significant cash reserves and strong cash flow growth, underpins investments and prospective shareholder returns, making MSFT an appealing buy for investors.
Yet, there are underlying risks that investors should keep an eye on. The unpredictable PC demand and broader macroeconomic challenges could put pressure on Microsoft's Windows and advertising-sensitive revenue channels. Furthermore, potential regulatory headwinds regarding their cloud services and AI partnerships could introduce uncertainties. Nevertheless, the average influence of these factors over the next 15 days and the coming month points to an optimistic trajectory, as Microsoft's strategic direction and solid financial footing overshadow these concerns. Overall, with a trend pegged as bullish, Microsoft seems poised for upward movement, promising pleasant surprises in its Q1 FY2025 earnings.
Comprehensive Analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Market Performance
Our multifaceted analysis of Microsoft's stock market is grounded in the company's key news stories, insights from reputable analysts, as well as mathematical and technical evaluations. Taking into account assessments from each of these aspects in real-time helps us address the most crucial questions for investors in the most objective way possible:
- When should I take profit in Microsoft stock?
- When should I record a loss on Microsoft stock?
- What are analysts' forecasts for Microsoft stock?
- What is the future of Microsoft stock?
We forecast Microsoft stock performance using neural networks based on historical data on Microsoft stocks.
Microsoft Inc. News influencing stock rates
As of now, Panda has combed through 58 news items directly related to MSFT from the last 30 days. Out of these, 27 clearly showcase a bullish trend, while 6 display bearish tendencies, and 25 events are neutral.
Based on an analysis of the most important news from the last 30 days affecting MSFT shares, it's clear that bullish sentiments are completely overshadowing bearish ones. The impact of positive news is more than five times as dominant as that of negative developments.
The news analyzed fell within the period from Sep 18, 2024, to Oct 17, 2024.
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Microsoft Leverages AI to Transform Healthcare
Microsoft's AI Ambitions Steer Analyst Optimism Ahead of Earnings
OpenAI's Path to Profitability: Not Until 2029, Microsoft Shares Revenue
OpenAI Foils AI-Driven Election Manipulation
Microsoft Corporation is one of the largest transnational companies producing proprietary software for various kinds of computing equipment – personal computers, game consoles, PDAs, mobile phones and others, the developer of the most widely used software platform in the world at the moment – the Windows operating system family. The divisions of the company also manufacture the family of Xbox game consoles, as well as accessories for personal computers.
In 2013, Microsoft announced the purchase of its mobile phone manufacturing and service division from Nokia, Finland.
Trending Themes in the Technology Sector
Microsoft daily forecast for a month
| Date | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | 420.97 | 415.42 | 432.59 | 4.13 |
| Oct 20 | 418.95 | 407.05 | 425.49 | 4.53 |
| Oct 21 | 412.58 | 404.33 | 424.14 | 4.90 |
| Oct 22 | 399.71 | 387.72 | 409.14 | 5.53 |
| Oct 23 | 406.27 | 402.20 | 416.83 | 3.64 |
| Oct 24 | 408.22 | 396.79 | 413.12 | 4.12 |
| Oct 25 | 401.69 | 394.45 | 407.79 | 3.38 |
| Oct 26 | 399.44 | 395.44 | 406.95 | 2.91 |
| Oct 27 | 412.70 | 408.57 | 416.82 | 2.02 |
| Oct 28 | 420.79 | 413.55 | 424.32 | 2.60 |
| Oct 29 | 410.18 | 399.52 | 422.32 | 5.71 |
| Oct 30 | 417.07 | 407.40 | 421.74 | 3.52 |
| Oct 31 | 416.91 | 411.74 | 427.41 | 3.81 |
| Nov 01 | 422.41 | 418.52 | 435.93 | 4.16 |
| Nov 02 | 427.48 | 415.17 | 438.76 | 5.68 |
| Nov 03 | 439.28 | 431.19 | 450.87 | 4.56 |
| Nov 04 | 433.48 | 427.06 | 437.47 | 2.44 |
| Nov 05 | 429.84 | 422.79 | 436.03 | 3.13 |
| Nov 06 | 433.62 | 427.20 | 442.12 | 3.49 |
| Nov 07 | 427.72 | 422.25 | 434.22 | 2.84 |
| Nov 08 | 421.56 | 417.35 | 427.97 | 2.55 |
| Nov 09 | 415.16 | 409.18 | 421.47 | 3.00 |
| Nov 10 | 412.17 | 400.96 | 421.07 | 5.02 |
| Nov 11 | 405.74 | 399.73 | 413.69 | 3.49 |
| Nov 12 | 410.44 | 402.56 | 419.80 | 4.28 |
| Nov 13 | 424.89 | 419.79 | 430.33 | 2.51 |
| Nov 14 | 409.76 | 405.18 | 415.83 | 2.63 |
| Nov 15 | 415.50 | 407.52 | 420.49 | 3.18 |
| Nov 16 | 413.34 | 405.74 | 420.45 | 3.63 |
| Nov 17 | 414.66 | 402.89 | 419.97 | 4.24 |
Microsoft Daily Price Targets
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-19-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-19-2024: $420.97.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.970%.
Pessimistic target level: 415.42
Optimistic target level: 432.59
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-20-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-20-2024: $418.95.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 4.332%.
Pessimistic target level: 407.05
Optimistic target level: 425.49
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-21-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-21-2024: $412.58.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 4.669%.
Pessimistic target level: 404.33
Optimistic target level: 424.14
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-22-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-22-2024: $399.71.
Negative dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 5.236%.
Pessimistic target level: 387.72
Optimistic target level: 409.14
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-23-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-23-2024: $406.27.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.509%.
Pessimistic target level: 402.20
Optimistic target level: 416.83
Microsoft Stock Forecast 10-24-2024.
Forecast target price for 10-24-2024: $408.22.
Positive dynamics for Microsoft shares will prevail with possible volatility of 3.953%.
Pessimistic target level: 396.79
Optimistic target level: 413.12
MSFT (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2024
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. | 457.68 | 430.22 | 477.82 | 9.96 |
| Dec. | 475.99 | 465.99 | 501.69 | 7.12 |
Microsoft forecast for this year
Microsoft Stock Prediction for Nov 2024
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $457.683. Pessimistic: $430.22. Optimistic: $477.82
Microsoft Stock Prediction for Dec 2024
An uptrend is forecast for this month with an optimal target price of $475.99. Pessimistic: $465.99. Optimistic: $501.69
Microsoft (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2025
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 480.27 | 457.70 | 507.65 | 9.84 |
| Feb | 458.18 | 437.11 | 493.46 | 11.42 |
| Mar | 454.06 | 437.26 | 484.03 | 9.66 |
| Apr | 459.96 | 427.76 | 489.86 | 12.68 |
| May | 471.46 | 455.90 | 486.55 | 6.30 |
| Jun | 482.78 | 457.19 | 521.40 | 12.31 |
| Jul | 476.02 | 464.12 | 486.96 | 4.69 |
| Aug | 488.87 | 472.74 | 503.05 | 6.03 |
| Sep | 470.78 | 451.95 | 507.97 | 11.03 |
| Oct | 468.90 | 433.26 | 494.69 | 12.42 |
| Nov | 459.52 | 433.33 | 493.52 | 12.20 |
| Dec | 451.71 | 438.61 | 472.03 | 7.08 |
Microsoft (MSFT) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2026
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 450.80 | 427.36 | 477.40 | 10.48 |
| Feb | 448.55 | 438.68 | 469.18 | 6.50 |
| Mar | 462.46 | 436.56 | 472.17 | 7.54 |
| Apr | 455.98 | 436.37 | 484.71 | 9.97 |
| May | 497.48 | 470.61 | 529.81 | 11.17 |
| Jun | 458.67 | 443.54 | 491.70 | 9.79 |
| Jul | 461.88 | 433.25 | 489.60 | 11.51 |
| Aug | 476.20 | 448.58 | 493.34 | 9.07 |
| Sep | 489.06 | 467.05 | 525.74 | 11.16 |
| Oct | 527.21 | 500.84 | 551.46 | 9.18 |
| Nov | 502.43 | 467.26 | 530.56 | 11.93 |
| Dec | 541.11 | 516.22 | 554.10 | 6.84 |
Microsoft information and performance
ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND, WA, US
Market capitalization of the Microsoft Inc. is the total market value of all issued shares of a company. It is calculated by the formula multiplying the number of MSFT shares in the company outstanding by the market price of one share.
EBITDA of Microsoft is earnings before interest, income tax and depreciation of assets.
P/E ratio (price to earnings) - shows the ratio between the price of a share and the company's profit
Price/earnings to growth
Dividend Per Share is a financial indicator equal to the ratio of the company's net profit available for distribution to the annual average of ordinary shares.
Dividend yield is a ratio that shows how much a company pays in dividends each year at the stock price.
EPS shows how much of the net profit is accounted for by the common share.
Trailing P/E depends on what has already been done. It uses the current share price and divides it by the total earnings per share for the last 12 months.
Forward P/E uses projections of future earnings instead of final numbers.
Enterprise Value (EV) /Revenue
The EV / EBITDA ratio shows the ratio of the cost (EV) to its profit before tax, interest and amortization (EBITDA).
Number of issued ordinary shares
Number of freely tradable shares
Shares Short Prior Month - the number of shares in short positions in the last month.
Microsoft (MSFT) stock dividend
Microsoft last paid dividends on 11/21/2024. The next scheduled payment will be on 12/12/2024. The amount of dividends is $3 per share. If the date of the next dividend payment has not been updated, it means that the issuer has not yet announced the exact payment. As soon as information becomes available, we will immediately update the data. Bookmark our portal to stay updated.
Last Split Date: 01/01/1970
Splitting of shares is an increase in the number of securities of the issuing company circulating on the market due to a decrease in their value at constant capitalization.
For example, a 5: 1 ratio means that the value of one share will decrease 5 times, the total amount will increase 5 times. It is important to understand that this procedure does not change the capitalization of the company, as well as the total value of assets held in private hands.
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Commentary
Microsoft's current market position presents a mixed outlook, primarily influenced by weak post-earnings performance and the spotlight on Azure's growth trajectory. The stock, despite outperforming earnings estimates, has not satisfied investor expectations, possibly dampening momentum. This reaction, coupled with growing concern over Azure's ability to drive future growth, weighs heavily on investor sentiment. The significance of these factors suggests that the stock may not see significant positive movement in the next 15 days as confidence wavers.
On a broader horizon extending to the next month, the analysis of forward valuation metrics and technical patterns propose caution for investors. Microsoft's current valuation places it at a less attractive proposition compared to its peers, potentially steering investment dollars elsewhere. Alongside this, a potential head and shoulders pattern adds a layer of uncertainty, possibly heightening bearish sentiment. These combined aspects suggest that while stability might be maintained, a bullish turn is unlikely. Overall, the average influence strength of these factors indicates a neutral trajectory for Microsoft's stock in the near term.